The non-linear effect of maritime transport on economic growth, evidence from Iran

Transportation with economic and social development Transportation has gained an external scope with economic and social development and due to the role of infrastructure, it is very effective on the economic growth of the country, it is considered one of the important components of the national economy. The development of shipping and maritime transport services and the development of ports have a significant impact on international trade and, in turn, cause the growth and development of the economy. For this reason, the discussion of the blue economy is one of the latest topics that has penetrated the literature of economic growth. Container transportation is an important factor in economic growth.Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of container transportation on economic growth during the years 2018-2019 using the non-linear self-regression model with distribution breaks. The results of the study show that, based on the results of the self-regression model with distribution breaks, except for the first break in economic growth, which had a negative and meaningless effect on economic growth, the rest of the variables, including physical capital, manpower, and sea transportation, had an effect. have had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Also, based on the short-term results of the non-linear self-regression model with distribution breaks, a positive shock of physical capital has a positive and significant effect, a negative shock of physical capital and the first concept of a negative and significant effect, a positive shock of labor has a negative and meaningless effect, shock The negative effect of the labor force has a negative and significant effect, the positive shock of sea transportation has a coefficient of 6.039, a positive and significant effect, and the negative shock of the first task of sea transportation has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth.The long-term estimation results of the nonlinear model indicated that the first positive shock of physical capital is negative and meaningless, the negative shock of the first concept of physical capital is negative and significant, the positive shock of labor force is negative and meaningless, the negative shock of labor force is negative and meaningful, the positive shock Transportation with a coefficient of 6.003 is positive and significant, as well as the negative shock of the first interruption of sea transportation on economic growth is positive and meaningless.Therefore, economists and planners have considered economic growth as conditional and subject to the development of the transportation sector and communication facilities and related services. Therefore, in order to have a successful growth, a range of measures must be designed and implemented in various channels of policy-making in order to achieve sustainable goals in this field and considering the process of capital formation and added value in the transportation sector and The whole economy of the country shows the high potential of the transportation sector, and this potential will be much higher than the current level if problems such as the low rate of return on investment and legal restrictions are resolved.